CRUDE OIL BUBBLE: IS IT A CASE OF " IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE?

CRUDE OIL BUBBLE: IS IT A CASE OF " IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE"?

 

The recent gravity defying surge in Crude Oil has attracted much attention and generated heated debate across the globe. A 100% annual appreciation in prices of world's principal source of fuel is bound to affect all countries and their inhabitants in a big way. The situation is even worse at MCX, India, where a depreciating rupee (against dollar) has further added momentum to the rally as a stronger dollar directly translates to costlier imports (read Crude Oil). In my previous posts in the same blog and numerous articles, presentations, lectures and private discussions, I had reiterated that the era of "Easy/Cheap" oil is over. However, the way the Crude Oil is scaling newer highs each day has put analysts across the world in a fix. It is not the $130 or $135 level which is alarming us but the speed with which these milestones are being achieved.

 

 

Market is equally divided between those who are seeing further upside and between those who are expecting a substantial correction in near term.

 

 

The reasons for a deeper correction/profit booking in Crude Oil are numerous.

 

 

There are many reasons to assume that market is overreacting to Oil bullish factors. What is being ignored is the fact that Commodity business is a cyclical one. Higher Crude Oil prices (or any other commodity) are self defeating as it directly translates into a reduction in demand as the consumers start cutting down on consumption or switches to cheaper alternative. Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs who has to his credit many doomsday prophecies (including the recent Crude at $ 200 one) himself drives in a Hybrid car.

 

Many banks and investment firms have come out to defend the rise in oil prices, saying that it is based on fundamentals and that prices could rise much further. Analysts like Arjun Murti, Pickens, Guppy etc. and market movers like Goldman Sachs, UBS are constantly raising the projection levels in prices, thus sending the prices over the roof. While they go on saying this and prices continues to move upward, open interest in crude futures contracts has been moving steadily downward since a high of 1.58 million last July to 1.36 million now.

 

But aren't there fundamental reasons for this rise in oil prices? In some ways yes, demand from China and India is increasing, but at a slower pace than oil has gone up. The chief market strategist for one of the world's leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of J.P. Morgan Funds, recently admitted something telling to the Washington Post, "One of the things I think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil consumption is not that strong." One of the stories used to support the oil futures speculators is the allegation that China 's oil import thirst is exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand equilibrium. The facts do not support the China demand thesis however. The US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its most recent monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report, concluded that US oil demand is expected to decline by 190,000 b/d in 2008. That is mainly owing to the deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from exploding, is expected to rise this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was around 7 million b/d total. The US , by contrast, consumes around 20.7 million b/d. That means the key oil consuming nation, the USA, is experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels, less than half of a percent of the total demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.2 mm bpd, as slowing economic growth in the industrialised world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing nations. OPEC predicts global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd -- largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China , the Middle East , India , and Latin America -- is forecast to be stronger but the EU and North American demand will be lower.

 

Not only is there no supply crisis to justify such a price bubble. There are several giant new oil fields due to begin production over the course of 2008 to further add to supply.

 

The world's single largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia is finalizing plans to boost drilling activity by a third and increase investments by 40 %. Saudi Aramco's plan, which runs from 2009 to 2013, is expected to be approved by the company's board and the Oil Ministry this month. The Kingdom is in the midst of a $ 50 billion oil production expansion plan to meet growing demand in Asia and other emerging markets. The Kingdom is expected to boost its pumping capacity to a total of 12.5 mm bpd by next year, up about 11 % from current capacity of 11.3 mm bpd. In April this year Saudi Arabia 's Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to world oil supply of high grade Arabian Light crude. As well, another Saudi expansion project, the Khurais oilfield development, is the largest of Saudi Aramco projects that will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia 's export capacity.

 

Brazil 's Petrobras is in the early phase of exploiting what it estimates are newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as great or greater than the North Sea . Petrobras, says the new ultra-deep Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the world's "top 10" oil producers, between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela .

 

 

In the United States, aside from rumors that the big oil companies have been deliberately sitting on vast new reserves in Alaska for fear that the prices of recent years would plunge on over-supply, the US Geological Survey (USGS) recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken. These are just several confirmations of large new oil reserves to be exploited. Iraq , where the Anglo-American Big Four oil majors are salivating to get their hands on the unexplored fields, is believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia . Much of the world has yet to be explored for oil. At prices above $60 a barrel huge new potentials become economic. The major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices. Here they have some help from Wall Street banks and the two major oil trade exchanges—NYMEX and London-Atlanta's ICE and ICE Futures.

 

Moreover, the argument that Crude Oil is tracking a weaker dollar doesn't hold true anymore. Euro has corrected sharply from its high of 1.6018 against the dollar. Signs of slowdown are being identified in Eurozone as well and ECB's Trichet has come under pressure to review his tight monetary policy. On the other hand recently released US economic indicators and have been largely mixed and point towards relative stabilization of Housing and labor market. Moreover with commodity prices going over the roof, US Federal Reserve may soon return to the policy of Inflation targeting. Interest-rate futures show the Federal Reserve may start to raise U.S. borrowing costs by the end of the year as the economy recovers and inflation accelerates. Earlier, seven interest-rate cuts by the Fed since September sent the dollar to an all-time low against the euro in April, boosting gold and other commodities.

 

 

Moreover, Crude Oil being a political (and strategic) commodity, we may very well see intervention from US on the issue of high prices. Entire global economy, especially that of US is under strong pressure due to Crude Oil induced inflation. Recently, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation allowing the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for limiting oil supplies and working together to set crude price. Already, President Bush in his recent trip to Gulf has pressurised Saudi Arabia, the most influential OPEC member to increase the Crude Oil production by 300,000 million barrels per day. Also, if recent indications are to be believed, U.S. Government is soon expected to force regulators to raise margin requirements under current market conditions, specifically with respect to the oil markets. This could have a dramatic downward effect on prices. (Remember silver and the Hunt Brothers in 1980.) In April 2008, U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, told Congress, "There is an orgy of speculation in futures markets. This is a 24-hour casino with unbelievable speculation." He and others in Congress have been raising the idea of changing margin requirements that traders must pay up front in order to engage in oil speculation. Dorgan said stock speculation requires a 50% margin, but commodities like oil demand a much lower threshold, just 5% or 7%.

 

 

No doubt, Crude Oil, being in limited supply, is fundamentally strongest commodity around. But the way the recent spike has pushed the prices of the liquid gold has raised many an eyebrow and in coming days we may expect a substantial correction. Though a break below $100 is certainly not anticipated and too far fetched, a correction to the tune of $ 20 from current levels cannot be ruled out. However, traders should refrain from taking a short position arbitrarily and should wait for the confirming trend. Like any other market analysts, I too have faith in the old adage "Market is always right" and "Trend is your friend".