Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Worlds first 2 Day International Match!

Hey Folks

Worlds first 2 Day International Match! is being held between West Indies and Australia (split due to rain), and once again, Australia is going to romp home a win!

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Fun City Chennai is a Death Trap for Kids

Fun City Chennai is a Death Trap for Kids

No safety, no First Aid Kit, and hundreds of kids allowed to play in a small area!

Something fishy and wrong and collision with local government is happening.

Yesterday we went with my kids to City Centre the new place for food and fun in Chennai. Obviously the fame is catching up, but without any safety precautions. The place is doomed and will be taken care!

After a meal in one of the restaurants, my kids insisted on playing at Funcity, who charge at exorbitant rates... 20 rupees for a 2 minutes game and 80 rupees for 1 hour in the congested death trap (slide and balls play area).

No attendant (with due respect, they dont have locals for managing - I dont know why?) was actively taking care of kids.

Since my son is under 5, we wanted  to be along with him, just to ensure. The flat faced lady comforted me that nothing wrong will happen and they will take care of kids well. My kids played for 10 minutes, and some rowdy kids - too small to take care, pushed around and my son fell down, with a big scratch on his face. (tip of the nose). I rushed there, and in vain, found no first aid kit. (obviously someone is taking bribe and letting the safety norms go for a toss!). No cotton and we had to use of hankies and take him to the nearest hospital. Luckily nothing serious and I hope the scar heals fast. The surgeon at CSI Kalyani Hospital nearby said, there could be a little scar....Now there will be mental tension and we have to run around, that too with his annual exam time!

When all this was happening, the manager did a first thing, all managers would envy off! He asked the flat faced lady whom I was angry with, to run away from the scene. (Note - there was business going on as usual, without first aid kid, but collecting money only!).

I wish someone from government take a sincere note of this and close down the establishment ASAP.

I live in Gopalapuram and proximity to the ruling party folks. Things will get messy!

Saturday, March 24, 2007

My new Indian Cricket team (a message to Mr Pawar and Vengsarkar)

After the debacle with Srilanka (everyone has it once a while), Indian cricket team needs a makeover.

Even if they make it to Super 8, thanks to Bermuda on Sunday, Sachin, Dhoni and Harbhajan gets the axe in all matches.

First thing

Sack Rahul Dravid as captain (but retain in team, The Wall)and re-instate Sourav Ganguly as Captain. Good for India for next 2 years.

Send out Sachin Tendulkar, even God needs retirement. (my son handles the bat well, just kidding ;-) ). No wonder his son says Dhoni is best, Wow!

Dhoni gets the boot. Let us give him a break, back for Australian trip.

Now Harbhajan magic is over after finger injury, with 5 runs plus an over and 36 plus a wicket in 50 balls, Ramesh Powar is the best bet. Anil Kumble should have played the Srilanka match than clicking pictures. Swansong in one-day cricket for him. Bye bye, owner of Candlelight software.

Robin Uthappa needs some more match practice so he stays.

Dinesh Kaarthick should be no 1 wicketkeeper, it was sad to seem in cry when India lost.

Vengsarkar and team have done his best (taking care of state/caste quotas, personal interests), but he should have had Suresh Raina and Mohd. Kaif in the team. He did for Sehwag, but he needs a break too! Let him come back for Australian trip.

What is Pathan doing? Get his brother too!

Also Badrinath and Venugopal Rao should be given a serious try, they are very good fielders too!

Where the heck is Ishant Sharma? he will play soon.... I want that Abid Ali from Kashmir on the trip to England.

God Bless All!

So others stay around with all the salary and incentives, clubbed with performance.

Finally, no more individual advertisement contracts, only team contracts..... Good for team India.

South Africa Versus Australia today (March 24th 2007)

Looks like Australia would walk away with honors. I call this class match.

The time is favourable for them, while inserting South Africa to bat, and chase it comfortably.

Lets wait and watch.

Will Bermuda win against Bangladesh?

Bermuda versus Bangladesh on 25th March 2007

Will Bermuda win against Bangladesh?

No 6 at 10.13 AM  - Chennai

Moon with a connection of Venus in 12th, favourite pastime/game result.

Also Sun in the Lagna says that it is something of a challenge to intelligence, and the outcome may be just based on planets.

Asc and 11th sublords are Jupiter, which says YES.

Looking at Asc, 6th and 11th, there is Ju and Ve connection reflecting the question in mind, along with Moon.

Outcome timings....

Venus in transit in 12th. Victory for team in question, with help of Saturn which is in 3rd, with a connection of Jupiter and Venus. Clearly shows that some miracle or help is to happen.

Venus is in full swing under Jupiter influence from 18.01 PM to 1.18 AM.

Sun is in action till 3.30 AM, which clearly says that intelligence prevails.

So what I can deduce is match should be over by 1.18AM.

Bermuda should win the toss and bowl first and restrict Bangladesh to less than 150 under 40 overs, and chase the target before 1.18 AM, in 35 overs.

=======================================================
Yesterday I looked at the RPs of the toss at 6.30 PM IST and could deduce...

India would win and bowl against Srilanka, restrict to 250 of the opposition (still finding matches and scores with RPs)

Match will be over by 2.50AM next day, which says either India looses chasing or target is met.

Moon was in action will 10 PM only, clearly shows that the initial benefit gained is lost.

Saturn was in action which clearly showed that there was malicious intent to favour opposition.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Few Definitions

School:  A place where Papa pays and Son plays.
Life Insurance:  A contract that keeps you poor all your life so that
you can make your family Rich after your death.
Nurse:  A person who wakes u up to give you sleeping pills.
Marriage: It's an agreement in which a man loses his bachelor degree
and a woman gains her masters.
Divorce: Future tense of Marriage.
Tears: The hydraulic force by which masculine willpower is defeated by
feminine waterpower.
Lecture: An art of transferring information from the notes of  the
Lecturer to the notes of the students without passing through "the minds of
either"
Conference: The confusion of one man multiplied by the number present.
Compromise: The art of dividing a cake in such a way that  everybody
believes he got the biggest piece.
Dictionary : A place where success comes before work.
Conference Room : A place where everybody talks, nobody listens and
everybody disagrees later on.
Father: A banker provided by nature.
Criminal: A guy no different from the rest....except that he got
caught.
Boss : Someone who is early when you are late and late when you are
early.
Politician : One who shakes your hand before elections and your
Confidence after.
Doctor : A person who kills your ills by pills, and kills you by bills.
Classic: Books, which people praise, but do not read.
Smile: A curve that can set a lot of things straight.
Office:  A place where you can relax after your strenuous home life.
Yawn: The only time some married men ever get to open their mouth.
Etc.: A sign to make others believe that you know more than you
actually do.
Committee : Individuals who can do nothing individually and sit to
decide that nothing can be done together.
Experience : The name men give to their mistakes.
Atom Bomb: An invention to end all inventions.
Philosopher : A fool who torments himself during life, to be spoken of  when
dead

Definitions you must know!

Few Definitions

School: A place where Papa pays and Son plays.
Life Insurance: A contract that keeps you poor all
your life so that you can make your family Rich after
your death.
Nurse: A person who wakes u up to give you sleeping
pills.
Marriage: It's an agreement in which a man loses his
bachelor degree and a woman gains her masters.
Divorce: Future tense of Marriage.
Tears: The hydraulic force by which masculine
willpower is defeated by feminine waterpower.
Lecture: An art of transferring information from the
notes of the Lecturer to the notes of the students
without passing through "the minds of either"
Conference: The confusion of one man multiplied by the
number present.
Compromise: The art of dividing a cake in such a way
that everybody believes he got the biggest piece.
Dictionary : A place where success comes before work.
Conference Room : A place where everybody talks,
nobody listens and everybody disagrees later on.
Father: A banker provided by nature.
Criminal: A guy no different from the rest....except
that he got caught.
Boss : Someone who is early when you are late and late
when you are early.
Politician : One who shakes your hand before elections
and your Confidence after.
Doctor : A person who kills your ills by pills, and
kills you by bills.
Classic: Books, which people praise, but do not read.
Smile: A curve that can set a lot of things straight.
Office: A place where you can relax after your
strenuous home life.
Yawn: The only time some married men ever get to open
their mouth.
Etc.: A sign to make others believe that you know more
than you actually do.
Committee : Individuals who can do nothing
individually and sit to decide that nothing can be
done together.
Experience : The name men give to their mistakes.
Atom Bomb: An invention to end all inventions.
Philosopher : A fool who torments himself during life,
to be spoken of when dead

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Cricket World Cup 2007 - Super 8 and Beyond

This is my wishful thinking and astrological analysis.

Super 8 Lineup
-----------------------

Group A
A1 - Aus
A2 - SA

Group B
B1 - Ind
B2 - SL

Group C
C1 - NZ
C2 - Eng

Group D
D1 - Ire
D2 - WI

Super 8 Matches (24 matches)
----------------------------------------------
India wins against all
Australia looses against India
England looses against India, Australia
West Indies looses against India, Australia, England
Srilanka Looses to Australia, England, West Indies, South Africa
South Africa Looses to India, England, West Indies, New Zealand
New Zealand Looses to India, Australia, West Indies, Sri Lanka
Ireland Looses to India, Australia, England, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka

List of Points
--------------------
(1) 16 -  Aus - 5 wins (10) plus 6 points (Round 1) - 12 (10+2) rank (2)
(2) 14 -  India - 6 wins (12) plus 4 points (R1) - 14 (12+2) rank (1)
(3) 12 -  Eng - 4 wins (8) plus 4 points (R1) - 8 (8+0)
(4) 12 - WI - 3 wins (6) plus 6 points (R1) - 8 (6+2)
(5) 8 - SL - 2 wins (4) plus 4 points (R1) - 4 (4+0)
(6) 10 - NZ - 2 wins (4) plus 6 points (R1) - 4 (4+0)
(7) 8 - SA - 2 wins (4) plus 4 points (R1) - 4 (4+0)
(8) 0 - Ire - 0 wins (0) plus 0 points (R1) - 0 (0+0)

The rankings could change on only the right most points (points added on Super 8 qualifiers) and NRR..

Still the Semi Final lineup would be like this.

Semi finals
-----------------

24-Apr-2007    (1)  Aus   vs   (4)  WI
25-Apr-2007    (2)  Ind    vs    (3)  Eng

Final

(1) Aus vs (2) Ind  - 16 runs or 8 wickets win for India

Numerologically too India seems to be favoured... (unless bookies run the show)
1983- 3 (Ind) 1987 - 7(Eng) 1992 - 3(Pak) 1996 - 7(SL) 1999 - 1(Aus) 2003 - 5 (Aus) 2007 - 9 (Ind)

Friday, March 16, 2007

What Dymock says on Hororary?

Hororary Charts answer specific questions. Whenever an issue of some significance arises in your life, and you have been pondering your best course of action, make a note of the date and the exact time and set up a Chart for the location where you are at the moment. This will mostly of course be your place of residence but it could also occur when you are travelling.

The basic rules are—

  1. The Ascendant Ruler and the Moon represent the questioner (you, or somebody else who asks the question).
  2. The person, thing or issue you are enquiring about is represented by the Ruler of the appropriate House, for example:
    • 7th House for spouse, partner or another person not in any special relationship to you. Opponents and competitors.
    • 5th House for a child or lover, 11th for a friend or client.
    • 4th/10th House for a parent or boss.
    • 3rd House for short trips and moving house.
    • 8th House for money from others, pensions, government grants, etc. 2nd House for earnings.
    • 4th/7th Houses for changing residence.
    • 10th House for a question re your career and job.
    • 9th House for tertiary education or travel. Foreign parts and people.
    • 2nd House for an article lost.
    • 6th House for illness, 8th for surgery, 12th for hospitalization.
  3. Planets in the Houses concerned are also important, especially if close to the Cusp.

    You can see that the Houses follow their standard meanings. Aspects between the Rulers or occupiers of the Houses concerned show the answer. A trine or sextile gives a favourable outcome, an opposition or square an adverse issue, difficulty and struggle. Conjunctions can be either, depending on other factors, but mostly favourable when linked to Jupiter and Venus, unfavourable when linked to Mars or Saturn.

    Additional significators that help interpretation are the planets themselves: Sun and Saturn for the father: Moon and Venus for the mother: Mercury for children and small items: Moon for the home and family, Jupiter and Venus for luck and good fortune: Mars, Saturn, Uranus for accidents; Neptune both joy and disappointment; Pluto both destruction and resurrection.

    The Moon's function is especially important. Its applying Aspects indicate things to come, its separating Aspects represent what has already happened.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Bread is the best breakfast

Bread is the best breakfast

Off the shelf. Easy, all like. Cheap and economical. Very good for health.

Also any time snack.

;-) what goes on top of it matters, whether you are rich or poor!

Saturday, March 10, 2007

It's a Girl's World..

It's a Girl's World..

If he is late for class,he's told,
"Time and Tide wait for none".
If she is late,then the bus was late.
If a girl is dressed as a boy,she is modern,says the
world.
But if a boy is dressed as a girl,"Has he escaped from
the Zoo?"
:This is really coolman:
If a boy talks with a girl,"I think he is trying for
her"
But if a girl talks with a boy,then she is trying to
be friendly.
When a girl cries,the world is convinced of her
But when a boy cries,"Come on man:Don't be a girl".
:This is really coolman:
If a girl meets with an accident,then it's the mistake
of others.
And if a boy meets with an accident,"I think you
should learn to drive".
If a boy sits in front of a city bus,he is mannerless
and cultureless brute.
But if a girl sits in the back seat,"Try to respect
ladies,man!".
If a boy gets a big rank in an entrance exam,"You've
to work hard".
But if a girl gets a big rank,... still got 33!
Reservation.
If there are girls in a class,the professor gives an
interesting lecture,
And if there are no girls,he says,there is no class
today.
:This is really coolman:
If a girl does not answer,during a viva,then atleast
'smile' says the examiner.
But when a boy does not answer,"better luck next
time".

If a girl doesn't answer in an Interview , the
interviewer writes the answer for her and selects her

But when a boy does answer all questions , he gets
rejected due to over qualification

The List goes on...................... L L

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Photography

Interesting article in the Net on Photography
Who hasn't fallen prey to the many charms of these shiny, sleek electronic devices called cameras? One click and you have a memory stored forever. Bewitched by the camera's charms, I decided it was time I stopped being an awed spectator and got where the action was. My plan was not to become a pro but to add a certain quality to the pictures I take and also gain some basic knowledge about photography.

Determined, I called my colleague, Amrit Patki, a professional photographer with Digit and asked him for guidance. We decided to shoot on camera, the architectural marvel, the Chatrapati Shivaji Terminus or erstwhile Victoria Terminus (VT station) in Mumbai. What was captivating about my subject was not just it's Victorian beauty but also the sheer liveliness of the place.

Putting my Canon Powershot 4 mega pixel with 4x zoom capacity to test, I clicked three different shots from different angles and waited for expert advice.

My first lesson

Picture 1

When shooting a picture horizontally or vertically, one should select a point of interest.
Any shot taken should not have a central point as it disrupts the harmony of the picture, as was the case in this one.
The top portion of the picture is interesting and hence would have been better if taken vertically.
While clicking any shot, one should select a ¾ : ¼ ratio of any interesting point, which means that you should select either more of the sky or of the land depending on what brings more effectiveness to the picture.

Picture 2

There is no focal point in this picture.
The composition of the picture is incorrect.
The branch could have been shot in a way that would have made the picture more interesting.
This picture would have looked better if shot at a wider angle.

Picture 3

The angle of the picture is incorrect.
Ratio of the picture is not proportionate.
Composition could have been a lot better

Here are a few more interesting points I learned about photography:

A landscape picture gets more interesting when human figures or trees are used as the point of interest.
The zoom lens of the camera should be adjusted as per requirements of the picture.
A photograph should always be clicked from a side angle while maintaining balance of the frame.
Best lighting time during winter is around 8 am to 11 am and between 4 pm and 5:30 pm. The timings change according to seasons.
A lot of practice will ensure you have a steady hand while taking a shot, thereby enabling you to take that perfect picture.
After those tips, I decided to give my pictures another shot and put my learning to test. I was almost beaming at the results when Amrit casually suggested that perseverance was key. His comments on the pictures:

Picture 1 retaken

Space on top would give breathing space to the object in focus, adding to its beauty.
The picture by itself was a good one in terms of selection of the focal point.
Improvement of the angle is seen here.

Picture 2 retaken

Branches in the picture need better framing.
Composition of the building is good though it would have been better if taken in a sitting position.
A little more space on the right would have made the picture more interesting.

Picture 3 retaken

Good picture.
Focal point is much improved.
Focal point is much improved.

As a professional photographer Amrit uses a Nikon D70 DSLR with 18-70 mm lens (wide lens) 6.2 mega pixel. He clicked a few shots with it and showed me the end results. I noted the difference between the pictures taken by his camera and mine. For one, they were of better clarity. The camera had modified lens unlike mine and clearly the pictures were of better quality.

My first lesson in photography was quite a learning experience. With more lessons in store, am hoping to know more about macro, shutter speed, aperture setting, et all. So join me on the road to exploration.

Happiness

Happiness

Happiness is the "magic ingredient" people desire. Almost everyone I've met over the past few years can answer "Yes" to some or all of these questions:

  • Do you want to change your limiting beliefs?
  • Would you like to see yourself getting control of your life?
  • Have you tried to let go of negative thoughts & behaviours ?
  • Would you like to feel good, more & more of the time?
  • Are you ready to get what you want, fast?
  • Do you long for a sense of peace and fulfilment ?
  • Do you wish you could have better, more satisfying relationships ?
  • Are you ready to stop worrying and really start enjoying life ?
  • Are you ready to stop putting it off, and be happy now?

While we all know intellectually that the trappings of success can't bring us the happiness we desire, most people still act as though their happiness is dependant on getting what they want. But here's the thing:
 

When people say "I'll be happy when I get the (car / money / partner / skills / etc)", it almost never works!
 

In fact, in the years that I've been studying the links between happiness & success, I've discovered something that completely blew my mind:
 

It works the other way around: You're much more likely to get what you want when you're happy!
 

As the multi-millionaire financial expert, Robert Kiyosaki says, "If you are not happy while getting rich, chances are that you will not be happy when you do get rich." 
 

What do I mean by happy success?

  • Getting what you want AND feeling good about it.
  • Doing the job of your dreams AND loving going to work each day.
  • Getting the car / house / holiday you've always wanted AND feeling great every time you think about it.
  • Being in a relationship with someone you're incredibly attracted to AND feeling great about it every day.
  • Living a life that's your vision of success AND feeling fantastic about yourself every day. 

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

Dekoh the new Web2.0 Platform (Controlled Sharing from Desktop)

Here is the link

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/03/06/stories/2007030602640400.htm

Dekoh, is going to be the next Web2.0 in thing by Pramiti Technologies.

This provides  (Controlled Sharing from Desktop) - so all your friends can Dekoh (Hindi meaning "See") your platform independent applications.

Nice try!

The Logic of the Stock Price

The Logic of the Stock Price

A stock price has many definitions. One of the most sophisticated definitions is that it values the forecasted free cash flows of a company. There are many financial models that try to capture this conceptual definition (e.g. EV/EBIDTA, EPSxP-E, Cash EPSxCash P-E).

The most popular among them is the discounted (free) cash flow (DCF) valuation. Mainly popularized by Mckinsey and some other strategic consultants, it sought to value 'free cash flows' (operating margins, net of investment in working capital and routine capex, after adjusting for the tax benefits of leverage) over the visible period (also called the explicit period). Mckinsey also imputed a terminal value, which assumes a steady growth rate going to infinity. This perpetually growing cash flow often created a terminal value, which accounted for up to 90 per cent of the enterprise value (EV) in a fast growing company There are problems with this model. It often arrives at valuations that are considered 'theoretical' by markets. My understanding is that the 'strategic' valuation that the DCF is prone to recommend (5 to 8 years) is simply too long for the market. The real reason why the market often undervalues a given cash flow is that it is simply too myopic.

That seems to have been the disconnect in the Tata-Corus deal. Phrases like 'winner's curse, 'arrogant acquisition' 'overpayment' and 'value destroying' have been used. The difference in perspective, I think, is purely over the visible forecasted period. Tata Steel's strategists are valuing the free cash flow over a longer competitive advantage period. This goes back to the Buffetian argument that the valuation of the stock should take into account not only the size and growth rate of a cash flow but also the competitive advantage period. This articulates a long-standing disagreement between the steel industry and the stock markets. The steel industry is a long gestation industry. The typical project (concept to free cash flow) is set up over most of the typical business (or interest rate/liquidity) cycle. Hence any steel company has to ride out a period of high liquidity and a cash crunch every time it sets up a greenfield capacity. Steelmen, therefore, are used to thinking in terms of a gestation period of 8 to 12 years. They simply have longer visibility than the financial markets.

On the flip side, they also know that an embedded player has a huge advantage. Sometimes you make extra money simply because you are sitting there. The Tatas have possibly projected a certain free cash flow grown at certain rate over a longer competitive advantage period than the markets are used to defining.

So who is right? Financial market players (my mental stereotype is of the Ketan Parekhs, Harshad Mehtas and the hedge funds of the world) or the steel industrialists? Are these market players any richer than the Tatas? Long-term investors don't necessarily do worse than spectacular wealth creators, found so commonly in the financial markets. You just have to decide what you want to be.

When Warren Buffet said, "Buy the business, not the scrip", this was what he meant. Let me explain this in detail.

I don't think too many people, bar the most cynical, are arguing that the Tata-Corus deal is going to reduce the total free cash flow (FCF) of the combined entity. Yes, there is a certain view that if the steel cycle turns, the FCF being projected will drop, but will it turn negative? And if it doesn't, then the payback will happen. Only the rate at which the payback will happen might get extended. That would increase the number of years taken to digest the acquisition.

This is what a value investor should seek. Whenever Mr Market turns apoplectic, but you find long-term, 'strategic' players who want to 'buy the business, not the scrip' on your side; go ahead, jump. This is the Buffet model. Once you know where the market stands, you should stand apart from the market. At this point in time, the broader market is definitely morose about Tata Steel. Yet, nobody is arguing with Mr Ratan Tata on his claims of "long-term value". The difference of opinion is only about the investment horizon.

Most of my regular readers would know that I am usually bearish, skeptical, 'negative'. This is especially true of the last couple of years, when I have been negative, even as I have myself joined the large mass of India's nouveau riche. Well, here is my recommendation - buy Tata Steel, and keep trading in the stock for five years (which is the payback period estimated by many analysts on current cash flows of the combined entity).

How do you trade? As you find the short-term (Mr. Market) marketmen get out, pace yourself and get in. Just like you buy a systematic investment plan (SIP), keep buying this stock on declines. Every time the stock recovers back to its previous high, sell what you bought at lower levels; then buy back the stock as it declines. This way, target to keep your average holding cost lower than the prevailing stock price. The stock will make a long, saucer-like pattern. Your average holding cost should track the falling price of the stock. As your average price drops, keep adding to your total holding. In other words, take your trading profits in the form of stock, not cash.

I will not speculate on how long the coming (down cycle?) will continue. The RBI has just hiked CRR rates again, clearly telling the country that they are determined to squeeze out liquidity till inflation slows down. As interest rates rise, the cost of capital in the markets will rise much more. That should bring temperance to the stock markets (and real estate, but that is a different story).

If you don't know how to trade, then you must buy and hold. That is a more difficult way to earn money, but Warren Buffet has proved that it can be equally profitable. For buy-and-hold investors, this would still count as a 'Buffet event', i.e., a sharp, apparently disastrous incident that looks spectacular, but does not impact the long-term prospects of the company. That is a cue for value investors to go bottom-fishing.

 

 


Asian Stocks (Must Read Article)

Asian Stocks

Of "Asian" flus and global cues…

With no "bottom" after the 10% decline over the past fortnight, the Indian markets are at it again – down 3.2% as we write! Indian equities are seemingly having a case of the Asian flu: benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, China and Taiwan have just closed in the red (see graph below). These markets, in turn, are taking the "global" cue from a 1% decline witnessed in the US markets on Friday.

Fears of an economic slowdown in the US, China's proposed leash on speculative domestic capital and the realisation that the Indian economy is in an 'overheated' mode, have seemingly shaken investors belief whether the Indian stockmarkets, after a 4-year dream run, are actually a pretty 'risky' place!

A slowing economy….
We shall reiterate what we have been saying with respect to the economy overheating and the hanging sword of rising capital costs globally (and in India). We believe that there is a high probability that the Indian economy will slow down as the RBI is (correctly) determined to keep inflation under control by increasing interest rates and slowing demand.

…does not change our view.
Well, we are not surprised by the attempts by the RBI to slow the economy! We continue to believe that the Indian economy will grow at a rate of 7% to 7.5% per annum on a long-term sustainable basis. We continue to believe that earnings of India Inc. will grow at 15% per annum on a long-term sustainable basis. So do not get confused about the noise that will be created over a slower growth rate in the US economy or by the selling of FIIs that may cause the market to decline shaprly (as it did in May June 2006).

Focus on your portfolio, and your ability to take risks
The effect of a slowing economy will vary by sector: capital goods companies will possibly see a slowdown in orders; but technology companies may not be affected. However, the global decline in stock markets may see a further sell-off in Indian share markets. But do not let these near-term swings and "bull" and "bear" markets rattle you. There is a way to be immune to all the noise about the Asian flu and global cues. The smartest and most successful investors in the world tend to ignore such volatility and always invest with a long-term perspective – they are never concerned about the daily movements in stock prices

The events of the past week should have given you ample reason to reassess your portfolio exposure. The specific stocks you own (click to read our view on large-cap and mid-cap stocks) or the mutual funds you own ( meet a Personalfn representative ) must have a risk-return profile that suits your financial goals and your risk-taking ability. Never gamble in stocks and mutual funds, always invest rationally.


 
 
 
Markets: You are not alone!

"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffett
Did your stocks survive last two week's plunge? No? Well, you were not alone to have taken the hit! Data compiled for CNX Nifty stocks show that, during the period from 2nd February 2007 to 2nd March 2007 (28 days), all 50 of them lost ground, with the Nifty itself losing 11% during this period. What more, 23 of these (or 46% of the pack) are down on a yearly basis as well! As for the BSE-Sensex, all 30 stocks ended the 28-day period in the red.

Nifty: Top 10 losers
  02-Feb-07 02-Mar-07 Change 52-Week H/L
VSNL  505  360  -28.8% 516 / 300 
Grasim 2,811  2,097  -25.4% 2,940 / 1,455 
Hindalco 184  138  -25.2% 251 / 133 
Jet Airways 786  600  - 23.6% 1,058 / 475 
Guj. Ambuja 143  110  -23.1% 153 / 70 
OBC 219  174  -20.5% 280 / 139 
MTNL  169  135  -20.1% 229 / 123 
ACC 1,041  854  -17.9% 1,195 / 601 
PNB  517  427  -17.4% 582 / 300 
BHEL  2,502  2,098  - 16.1% 2,666 / 1,533 

The weakness in Indian equities over the past few sessions has been due to a combination of factors - most of them actually impacting the whole of global equity markets. China was simply the trigger, but the fears of slowdown in the US has an equal part to play if not more. And you know what, despite being the 'trigger' for the global 'collapse', China was the only one among the major global indices to end the stated period (2nd February 2007 to 2nd March 2007) in the positive!

Global equities: India 'leads' the pack!
Index Country 02-Feb-07 02-Mar-07 Change
BSE-Sensex India 14,404  12,886  -10.5%
Bovespa Brazil 44,998  42,370  -5.8%
Hang Seng Hong Kong 20,564  19,442  - 5.5%
CAC France 5,677  5,425  -4.4%
Straits Times Singapore 3,218  3,079  -4.3%
Dow Jones US 12,653  12,114  -4.3%
DAX Germany 6,886  6,603  -4.1%
NASDAQ US-Tech 1,798  1,726  -4.0%
FTSE UK 6,311  6,116  - 3.1%
Nikkei Japan 17,547  17,218  -1.9%
Shanghai Comp. China 2,673  2,832  5.9%

Source: Yahoo Finance
After the significant volatility witnessed in equities over the last two weeks, you must be wondering whether this is a sign of things to come. And why not! Following four strong years of stock market gains and sky rocketing valuations across sectors, it would not be out of doubt to believe that the markets may enter a prolonged period of selling (or correction). Whatever the case may be, recent events are certainly a reminder that there is, in fact, 'risk' in equity investing.

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett

So, what are the lessons learned?
The past few weeks must have provided you with a great time to reassess your risk exposure. However, it would be folly to blindly sell off your stocks based solely on the recent events. While the latest market plunge might serve you a wake-up call, it should not be seen as a forecast that 'all' stocks are headed downward. In fact, now is a great time to make sure that you are invested in financially sound companies with strong business models and reasonable valuations.

Where to from here?
As we had mentioned in our view on the market after the Wednesday (February 28, 2007) fall, the recent decline should be taken as an opportunity to invest and build a long-term equity portfolio. Needless to say that the equity component of the overall asset allocation should be in line with one's risk-return profile. Overall, you, as a retail investor, should not shy away from equities given the recent decline in the stock market. Invest in good companies with strong business models ( i.e., ability to ride through cycles) from a three to five year perspective and do not worry about the day-to-day market movements.

Parting note (From Warren Buffett's Letter to Shareholders, 2000)
"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."



If you are bored at work!

If you find it very boring in the office...

1. Form a detective agency to find out who is quitting next.
2. Make blank calls to your Boss.
3. Send mails from lotus notes (outlook) to your internet mail (and
Immediately get to the internet and see who reaches
first, you or your Mail?) And read them there, and note down the time they
take to reach There. Then do vice versa.....!!
4. Rearrange the furniture, i.e. flick someone else\'s chair just to
Irritate him/her.
5. Count your fingers (and toes if you still get bored).
6. Watch other people changing their facial ex-press ions while working and
try changing your ex-press ions also.
7. Try to stretch status meetings as longer as possible, just by asking
Silly doubts.
8. Make faces at strangers in office.
9. Have a two hour lunch; it\'s a big social occasion.
10. Learn to whistle.
11. Revise last week\'s newspaper.
12. Hold "How fast my computer boots" competitions.
13. Practice aiming the coffee cup into the dustbin.
14. Compile "How to waste your day"
15. Pick up phone and dial non-existing nos.
16. Have work breaks in between tea.
17. Count maximum no of applications your computer can open at time.
18. For Win NT/95 users....Move things to Recycle bin and restore Them. Then
repeat this process.
19. Look at someone & try to imagine how(s) he might have looked when(s) he
Was 5 years old.
20. Read jokes and send jokes.
21. Make full use of the comfortable chair and table provided and take a
Nap.

And if you are still getting
bored.........................then
22. Fwd this mail to everyone u know....

Stock Market

Serious Investing of the savings in Stock Markets either direct or through Mutual Funds
would make a lot of difference in saving money.

Some sites you can use. (India)

http://www.amfi.com
http://www.valuresearchonline.com

Also do due diligence on investing. Never take tips from brokers/sellers. Do your own research.

Monday, March 5, 2007

Songs

I love Tamil songs, and some melodies from Hindi.

I keep buying lots of CDs, MP3s.

I will also write about my favourite stars/singers.

passion in photography

I like to share my passion in photography.

I will try to scan my non digital pictures and post.

Lovely Kids

I have two kids 7 years old daughter and 5 years old son. They are growing day by day.

Their talk changing from kiddish to matured.

I hope their attachment remains same when they grow up.

Would like to share their nuances, etc. when I find time.

My friends

I make friends wherever I go.

In school, neighbours and other friends friends.

My husbands friends wives become my friends and they become intangible.

Life and studies

Life is a game.

All the important decisions are made in split second.

Tough to have a call later.

Your studies in life, matter most when you are old.

In my own words

I would like to have my life story and achievements written here...

All are welcome to post comments..

I hope this is a joyous ride.

Regards
Vinitha